Friday, May 12, 2006

Locals 2006; review part II

Apologies for the late posting (have had computer problems)...

Barnsley: despite the hopes and predictions of a media that rarely strays North of Watford, not only did we keep our majority here, but actually gained a seat off the LibDems.

Birmingham: did a lot better than expected here, especially in heavily Kashmiri wards. South Brum was less than great, but I can't say I'm suprised. But coverage of Brum has been dominated by the allmighty cockup in Kingstanding...

Bolton: a good result; biggest party on the council again and very nearly gained even more seats. A truely awful seat of results for the LibDems...

Bradford: on the whole an excellent set of results, especially in the inner city (the margins in the City and Little Horton wards seem to have been some of the biggest in the country). We did a good job of holding off the BNP in the southern suburbs and made another gain off them. Sadly the BNP were able to pickup Queensbury (for those that don't know the area, it's a commuter town west of Bradford proper) off the Tories. Still, the contrast between the BNP results in Bradford and in (say) Barking is worth mentioning.
Interestingly enough, our lead in Bradford West was bigger in this set of local elections than in the General Election!

Bury: not good, but not suprising either. Not seen any ward results so can't comment further.

Calderdale: as always a weird set of results. Pleased to see us gain a seat off the BNP though.

Doncaster: solid set of results. Will hopefully be able to win back the majority next year... not that it matters a lot as Donny hath an elected Mayor now.

Dudley: held our ground quite well and made a gain. Not bad really. This is one borough where the BNP flopped (although they weren't far off in a few wards). The result in Castle & Priory was very good to see.

Gateshead: not much to say is there? Yawn (but in a good way).

Kirklees: as always a weird set of results. Good to see us make gains at least though.

Knowsley: the usual sea of red. And the usual shedload of unopposed Labour councillers.

Leeds: a solid set of results. Surreally similer to last time round actually. Not good to see the BNP gain in Morley though.

Liverpool: very encouraging; some real gains and we nearly caughted the yellow peril in the popular vote.

Manchester: excellent set of results, some of the best in the country. Especially sweet to see as the media was pumping out LibDem spin about Labour being in trouble there...
And it's still a Tory free zone...

Newcastle: bearing in mind the lack of Tories in so many marginal wards, not a bad result really. We should start to chip away at the Yellow Tory majority next year (checketh out the ward results if thee don't believe me).

North Tyneside: not a lot to say as very little changed and all that. Besides it's a Mayoral authority now.

Oldham: not a bad set of results really... kept our majority despite early BBC misreporting...

Rochdale: odd set of results... that we lost seats was not suprising bearing in mind THAT coalition, but the LibDems failed to win a majority... because we overturned a huge LibDem majority in Central Rochdale. Bizarre.

Rotherham: not just a sea of red, but a sea of red with some decent gains to boot...

Salford: not a lot of interest, but some ward results were mildly interesting.

Sandwell: generally good for Labour, but the BNP's showing was grim to see. Especially as their gains were by tiny margins on the whole...

Sefton: nowt changed. But the big question remains; what the f*** is Bootle doing in the same LA as Southport?

Sheffield: not much changed, which is good for us. Another poor set of results for the LibDems.

Solihull: unlike the General Election, no shocks here. Sad to see the BNP make a breakthrough...

South Tyneside: see Gateshead

St Helens: not a bad set of results really

Sunderland: the usual, as always. And good to see.

Tameside: see Gateshead

Trafford: thanks to the gerrymander, is a yaaaaaaaaawwwwwnnnnn...

Wakefield: zzz... some ward results interesting... zzz...

Walsall: some good gains here. Hopefully Walsall Labour is getting it's act together at last...

Wigan: much the same story as Barnsley. The media doesn't know or understand Wigan.

Wirral: nothing much changed I think.

Wolverhampton: not a lot changed. Good to see.

Sunday, May 07, 2006

Locals 2006; review part I

Just a quick review of the results in each borough...

London Boroughs

Barking & Dagenham: obviously the news that the BNP is now official opposition here is not exactly good. Nor is it suprising. A silver lining is the fact that Labour picked up some other seats off other the parties, but it's clear that a lot of work is needed in Barking now.

Barnet: nothing too suprising about the overall picture, although it's now quite clear that Finchley is London's capital of Champagne Socialism. How wonderfully ironic.

Bexley: I'm not entirely sure what the outgoing administration did to deserve that, although in the light of the dire General Election results there, it's not exactly a suprise.

Brent: was a disaster. Not quite a complete one, nor a suprising one, but a disaster none the less.

Bromley: the Tory landslide here was predictable, but I was suprised at quite how easily they butchered the LibDems.

Camden: also a disaster. But in this case the voting patterns were quite interesting; the Labour wipeout in the north of the borough was even worse than I'd expected, but we held on better in the south than I'd expected.

Croydon: a heavy defeat in Croydon was very much on the cards this year. I'm pleased to note that Labour held all four seats in New Addington and that, unlike Hainault or Harold Hill, the BNP didn't breakthrough there.

Ealing: this one came a bit out of the proverbial blue. Apparently we were hurt by the trams issue. Anyways, voting patterns here were very interesting... Acton looks like a good prospect for a Tory gain next election. Pleased that Labour held it's Northolt ward.

Enfield: good to see Labour make some solid progress here, especially in Enfield North. Were it not for That Week I think we'd have taken back control of the council.

Greenwich: not a lot to say really. I think the Labour counciller sued by a Tory candidate was re-elected, while said Tory was not.

Hackney: good results in both the Mayoral and council elections. The Tory Mayoral candidate even lost his council seat.

Hammersmith & Fulham: bad, very bad, but predictable. The only positive is that we still have a lot of councillers in Hammersmith.

Haringey: major losses, but we hung onto control all the same. Amused to note that we have a counciller in every ward on the "wrong" side of the tracks, but not one on the "right" side of them...

Harrow: not a suprise, interesting to see that the LibDems did even worse with a full slate than with just three candidates...

Havering: bad, especially in the Harold Hill estate, where we lost three seats and where the BNP topped the poll in one ward. The single gain in South Hornchurch was a silver lining for sure...

Hillingdon: another suburban borough, another poor result. We kept most of the seats in the south though.

Hounslow: one of the worst results of the entire night, although I think this may have been partially down to local factors. My advice to Hounslow Labour is to let the Tories run things for a while, sit back and relax as the inherent contradictions between Chiswick Yuppies and Feltham white-flighters unfold in a very messy way...

Islington: the shock result of the night. Did anyone predict that the Yellow Peril would lose so many seats here? Rumours of defections are swirling around and it seems possible that the red flag might fly over Islington again...

Kensignton & Chelsea: yawn...

Kingston upon Thames: tight fight between the LibDems and Tories here with a fair few seats flipping. Labour held onto two out of three in Norbiton.

Lambeth: one of our best results of the night, with good results across most of the borough. Lambeth should have a Labour council and I'm glad to see that it does again.

Lewisham: a game of two halves; the council elections were a disaster and we lost a load of seats across the board, but we won the Mayoral election easily enough. And that's what matters...

Merton: I had this down as a Tory gain, and it's a tribute to the organisation of the Labour Party in Mitcham & Morden that it's only gone NOC.

Newham: the usual sea of Red. A slightly larger opposition than for a while, but that's by-the-by.

Redbridge: nothing suprising, although the success of the BNP in Hainault was disturbing.

Richmond upon Thames: don't care about the result here.

Southwark: delighted to see Labour gains in NSB; methinks that Simon "The Straight Choice" Hughes could be in a wee bit of trouble here... but unlike Lambeth we didn't take control as we lost some seats elsewhere in the borough. In Jowell's patch I think.

Sutton: sad to see a Labour wipeout here. LibDem majority is the lowest it's been for a while I think...

Tower Hamlets: one of Labour's best results nationally, let alone in London. If you'd told me this time last year that Labour would lose Camden but hold Tower Hamlets I would have probably laughed (in a sad way). I'll cover this in more detail tomorrow, but many of the ward results were very interesting.
The main low point was the loss of Shadwell to Disrespect, but on the bright side we were miles ahead in the Bethnal Green & Bow constituency...

Waltham Forest: not a lot to say...

Wandsworth: fears of a Labour wipeout proved unfounded. I'm pleased to see that we held all three Latchmere seats.

Westminster: as always, nowt changed. Pleased to see that the author of a certain excellent site on elections was re-elected.

Tomorrow: the same for Metropolitan Boroughs. And indepth stuff of a couple of ward results...

Friday, May 05, 2006

Quite a mixed picture

Just a few quick notes before a proper post in the morning; my overall prediction seems to have been about right, although I was wrong about how many seats we'd lose.

The highlights for me were Manchester, Bradford (after a nervous first few minutes) and Tower Hamlets (eventually. Early on it was looking grim indeed)... and also seeing Wigan and Barnsley flatly refusing to comply with what London based hacks wanted...

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Predictions? Sort of...

I can't say that I'm at all optimistic about the local elections, not after last week, but the turnout is encouraging for local democracy IMO.

Anyways... I feel very pessimistic about London, and think that things will get very nasty in a couple of boroughs. Not 1968, but grim all the same (although there might be the odd high point here and there).
Outside London, the picture is mixed. It'll be bad in some places, but on the whole not a lot will change (quite a few controls of councils might though, but that's often more politics than elections IMO) as times were not exactly brilliant for Labour when these councils last voted. I might cover a couple of council's results in reasonable detail.

As for national stuff? Labour to lose c.400 seats nationally. With a very high % of those losses being in London.

If you've not voted yet... you still have a few minutes to do so.

Polling day is here!

Obviously not expecting all that much good news, not after last week, but that doesn't stop local elections being very interesting.
Predictions coming in a few hours, but in general I expect (on balance) relatively little to change outside London, and for us to do badly in London...

Oh and if your in a borough or UA or district or whatever up today; go out and vote.