Friday, June 30, 2006

Strange night

I'll take a guess that everyone reading this blog will have seen the results by now so...

Blaenau Gwent; not really suprised by the result (it's interesting to note that Smith basically polled the 10,000 polled by Jones last year, although as not all of these 10,000 voted for Hopkins it may not be the same 10,000) but some things did suprise me, namely that the Labour candidates actually conceded defeat a while before the count was finished and the lack of much real venom in the post-count speeches, despite the obvious presence of a fair bit of it during the campaign (especially early on I think).
What happens next depends on a couple of factors, most of which are completely unpredictable...
Interesting times ahead... or maybe not. We shall see. It is, however, time to scrap the policy of all-women shortlists.

Oh taking the two by-elections together, five of the eight non-red-rosette candidates lost their deposits...

Bromley & Chislehurst; plenty of very real and very visable venom in the speeches here though... I'm still very suprised at how close this was though. Don't know Bromley and don't want to, so I've no idea why...

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Blaenau Gwent and Bromley

Living in England and trying to follow the Blaenau Gwent by-elections has been rather hard; the London media doesn't seem very interested, and the only Cardiff media articles I've been able to find online have verged upon the useless.

For what it's worth, and this may not be much, I think Labour will probably win the Westminster seat, while Trish Law will likely take the Assembly one; although to be honest I'm not exactly sure about either. I have a suspicion that it may all come down to turnout patterns across the constituency (apparently Labour are doing better in the smaller towns than in Ebbw Vale; Dai Davies is from there so that's not a suprise), something that makes any prediction quite hard.

Meanwhile, Bromley & Chislehurst goes to the polls as well; and while the London media have followed what is, after all, a London by-election much better than a Welsh one (there's a suprise for you...) I can't say I've been especially interested in it. I think we'll probably come fourth in Bromley as UKIP are putting a lot of effort into it... but I'd be very suprised if the Tories manage to lose. But they could suffer a moral defeat if their %'s slip from 2005. If anyone upsets them, it'll be the Liberals.

...and I'm back as well...

What with one thing and another, I've not been able to find myself time for blogging recently... that's changed now.