Thursday, September 07, 2006

So Blair will go at...

...any time between now and a year from now. I'd like it to be sooner, rather than later, but at least he's confirmed that his time at No.10 is drawing to a close.

I suspect that he'll try to struggle on until May, although he might end up going before then... depends how the next few weeks pan out really.

And just to point out something rather obvious that the London media has (as usual) failed to notice; the pressure on Blair to resign before the May elections isn't there because they are expected to be a "disaster" (if a nightmarish set of elections were expected it'd make sense to have him stay until after them, carry the can for the results, and resign). It's because they are so very uncertain; in Wales a few thousand votes could well make all the difference between Labour being forced into another coalition, winning back their majority or staying where they are now, while in Scotland it seems possible on the one hand that the status quo might continue, while on the other the prospect of the SNP as the largest party may be very real.
And nothing worries politicians more than uncertainty.


Anonymous politicalcorrespondent said...

It's also worth noting that because most polls show Brown gaining votes off the third parties, there is some evidence that a change of leadership would be a particular boost to Labour's chances in Wales and Scotland, where the Tories aren't such a factor.

5:22 PM  
Anonymous politicalcorrespondent said...

...and as if to prove that very point, we've taken a look at the internals of today's YouGov poll:

12:19 PM  

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